Seasonal Outlook!

Seasonal outlook for past monsoon(October, November, December) and Winter (January, February, March) and subsequent spring. In contest of ENSO index provided by ABM. Generally slightly Above normal rainfall expected in post monsoon season (OND) in the country as a whole, but due to lesser averages of these months its tricky to tell, how much above normal, for example my area has an average of 10 to 15 mm for November, so a moderate rain like 25 to 30 mm can make it 100% above normal. However as general trend of wd driven rains, the intensity increases with NW displacement . In winter (JFM) if the trend (cooling trend) of NINO 3.4 (central Pacific) goes according to the estimates of ABM surveyed models, then scanty (-60 % below normal) rains are expected during winter and subsequent spring(AMJ )in the country as a whole and can lead to worse drought like conditions. A secondary forecast would be issued before winter, as room for slight changes in forecasting models is possible. The statistical probability of this forecast is 80 %.