The MJO is not expected to play a role in the pattern of tropical convection during Week-1, but a potentially developing signal during Week-2 may contribute to enhanced convection over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea.
Easterly anomalies intensified over South Asia and the northeastern Indian Ocean, and persisted over the northwestern Maritime Continent.
During late August and the beginning of September, the focus for enhanced convection shifted to the East Pacific, with continuing TC activity east, north, and west of Hawaii. Renewed convection developed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection persisted over the Maritime Continent and northwestern Pacific.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal remains weak, but has recently been detected over western hemisphere longitudes. There is substantial disagreement among international climate models on the position of the MJO, however nearly all models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology forecast a weak MJO signal for the coming two weeks. As has been the case in recent weeks, the MJO is not expected to play a significant role in the pattern of tropical activity over the next week or two.
During late August and the beginning of September, the focus for enhanced convection shifted to the East Pacific, with continuing TC activity east, north, and west of Hawaii. Renewed convection developed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection persisted over the Maritime Continent and northwestern Pacific.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal remains weak, but has recently been detected over western hemisphere longitudes. There is substantial disagreement among international climate models on the position of the MJO, however nearly all models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology forecast a weak MJO signal for the coming two weeks. As has been the case in recent weeks, the MJO is not expected to play a significant role in the pattern of tropical activity over the next week or two.
